Operating costs in road freight transport remain on the rise for 2023. The deterioration of the economy will have an impact on volumes, at least in the first half of the year.
At the beginning of the year 2023, pessimism is rife. The economic slowdown is continuing, and some countries will not escape recession. At the same time, war is still raging on European soil. In the midst of the clouds of uncertainty that dominate, a few rays of light are breaking through, such as the decline in inflation in the United States and Europe. But these are weak signals, and the first half of the year promises to remain gloomy.
The International Monetary Fund recently warned that global growth will be below 2% in 2023. At best, we can foresee a slight rebound in global activity in the second half of the year.
A depressed economy
The economic activity curve of 2023 should resemble a flattened V: first a technical recession that hits the European continent, of a limited magnitude over 1 or 2 quarters, then a recovery whose intensity will vary at the pace of geopolitical tensions, and in particular developments in the war in Ukraine.
This conflict is strongly affecting the road transport industry. It induces a decline in demand, a worsening of staff shortages by depriving the market of Ukrainian and Belarusian drivers, and an unprecedented increase in costs mainly due to the increase in fuel prices.
Finally, ecological transition will remain a key issue for road freight transport in 2023.
Under these conditions, which transport price scenario can be envisaged for 2023? Answers in our White Paper.
CONTENTS
- Recession in 2023, or not
- Energy shock
- The war in Ukraine and its direct consequences on Polish RFT
- Ecological transition
- Shortage of drivers
- Which transport price scenario can be envisaged for 2023?
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